GBP/USD Eyes $1.28 as Fed Rate Cut Bets Weaken Dollar, BoE Outlook Supports

The GBP/USD currency pair advanced during the European trading session, hitting an intraday high of $1.2784 before settling near $1.2778.


The GBP/USD currency pair advanced during the European trading session, hitting an intraday high of $1.2784 before settling near $1.2778.

This upward movement is fueled by growing market confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut during its December 18 meeting. The US dollar has weakened as expectations rise for a 25-basis-point rate reduction, with the probability increasing to 83% from 62% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch data.

November’s strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report added 227,000 jobs, surpassing forecasts of 200,000, yet the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman’s cautious stance on rate cuts reflects ongoing internal debates about balancing inflation control with economic support.

 

GBP/USD

Bank of England’s Gradual Easing Supports GBP

The British pound has been buoyed by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a measured pace of monetary easing. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized progress toward the inflation target, but challenges persist. Megan Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, indicated the bank might hit its 2% inflation target within three years.

Investors are closely monitoring Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden’s speech on Monday for further insights into the BoE’s approach to rate adjustments. Meanwhile, concerns over the UK labor market persist, with a survey by REC and KPMG revealing the weakest demand for workers since August 2020.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.27340, down 0.03%, consolidating near its pivot point of $1.27551.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key technical indicators include:

  • Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at $1.27957, followed by $1.28367.

  • Support Levels: Immediate support is at $1.27171, with further levels at $1.26875 and $1.26595.

  • Momentum Indicators: RSI at 45 signals neutral momentum, leaning slightly bearish.

A sustained break above $1.27551 could trigger bullish momentum, targeting $1.27957 as the next resistance. However, a dip below $1.27171 might lead to additional selling pressure, pushing the pair toward $1.26298.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
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