US CPI Effect: Goldman now expects only two Fed rate cuts in 2025 instead of three
One of the world’s largest banks, which previously expected rate cuts in June, September, and December, now anticipates them in July and November.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists are now forecasting two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year instead of three following Wednesday’s report showing consumer prices rose more than estimated in March.
The economists, who previously anticipated cuts in June, September, and December, now see them in July and November.
“We believe the Committee will need to see the string of three firmer inflation prints from January to March offset by a longer string of softer prints in the subsequent months,” the economists wrote.
The gains this week were trimmed following a Wednesday report showing that consumer price increases in the United States hadn’t slowed as much as expected. The data will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to justify interest rate cuts in June, which could impact economic growth.
This directly impacts the prices of exports from Latin America, such as Chile with copper.
Copper fell by 0.6% to $4.24 per pound at 5:05 p.m. in London.
But there are other reasons to be cautious. Spot copper is trading at a discount of $133 per ton compared to three-month futures on the LME, a structure called contango that may indicate ample immediate supply. Global inventories are near their highest level since June 2020, and spot sales in China are also trading at a discount to futures contracts.
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