Author: Ignacio Teson

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

Wall Street Closes Mixed as Nvidia Leads Gains

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed on Friday, with a surge in Nvidia lifting the Nasdaq, while the Dow and S&P 500 edged lower. Despite the uneven session, all three benchmarks ended the week with gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tracks 30 blue-chip stocks, fell 0.37% to 44,546.08 points. The S&P 500 dipped slightly by 0.01% to 6,114.63, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.41%, supported by strong performances in the sector.

[[SPX-graph]]

Investor sentiment improved after President Donald Trump signed a memorandum ordering the calculation of reciprocal trade tariffs, a process expected to take weeks, easing immediate concerns over potential trade disruptions.

Tech Stocks Shine, Nvidia and Airbnb Lead Gains

Among major tech companies, Nvidia (+2.63%) and Apple (+1.27%) stood out, while Airbnb surged 14.45% after posting better-than-expected earnings. By sector, technology and communication services led gains, while consumer staples posted the largest losses.

Within the Dow Jones, Nvidia and Goldman Sachs (+1.79%) were among the top performers, while Procter & Gamble (-4.75%) led the declines.

Weekly Performance

All three indexes closed the week in positive territory. The Dow Jones rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.47%, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 2.58% gain.

Notable Market Moves

  • Airbnb (ABNB) jumped after surpassing analyst earnings expectations.
  • GameStop (GME) rallied on speculation about its potential move into Bitcoin.
  • Moderna (MRNA) fell after reporting a larger-than-expected earnings loss, adding to the vaccine maker’s recent struggles.

The market remains focused on earnings season and the evolving trade policy landscape, with investors closely watching developments in tariffs and economic data for further direction.

Mexican Peso Strengthens as U.S. Dollar Weakens, Gains 1.17% for the Week

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar on Friday, benefiting from a weaker greenback amid speculation that the proposed U.S. reciprocal tariffs may be more of a negotiation strategy than an imminent policy shift.

The exchange rate closed at 20.3040 pesos per dollar, compared to 20.4780 pesos on Thursday, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represents a gain of 17.40 centavos, or 0.85%. The dollar fluctuated within a range of 20.4380 at its highest and 20.2630 at its lowest. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.27% to 106.77 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Tariff Concerns Ease

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump instructed his economic team to calculate reciprocal tariffs to match those imposed by other countries and counter non-tariff trade barriers. These studies could take several weeks to complete, reducing immediate market fears.

The peso maintained its weekly upward trend, supported by a declining dollar and reduced concerns over potential tariff hikes. Market sentiment suggests that Trump’s trade measures are more of a political maneuver than an immediate economic threat, leading investors to reassess their expectations.

Weekly Performance

The peso saw a strong recovery over the week. Having started at 20.5450 pesos per dollar last Friday, it gained 24.10 cents, or 1.17%.

At the same time, the weakening U.S. dollar reflected broader market sentiment that Trump’s tariff strategy could allow the Federal Reserve to continue focusing on reducing inflation, potentially paving the way for interest rate cuts this year. The Dollar Index dropped 1.23% over the week.

With information spreading rapidly, traders are increasingly focusing on strategic planning around high-impact scheduled events rather than reacting impulsively to Trump’s policy moves.

Wheat Jumps 4%, Hits Four-Month High Amid Cold Weather in U.S.

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Freezing temperatures in key winter wheat regions of Russia and the United States could damage dormant crops, which are losing their protective snow cover. Moscow, the world’s largest wheat exporter, faces potential supply risks.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures hit their highest level since October on Friday, as cold weather in the Black Sea region and U.S. plains supported prices and triggered short-covering, analysts said.

Weaker Dollar

Grain and soybean futures also found support from a weaker U.S. dollar and investor relief that President Donald Trump did not immediately impose reciprocal tariffs, according to analysts.

Trump’s decision to direct his economic team to draft tariff plans was interpreted as leaving room for negotiations. However, traders remained cautious about a potential trade war and possible retaliatory measures against U.S. agricultural exports.

The most active wheat contract in Chicago rose 4% to $221 per ton. Corn futures gained 0.6% to $195.37, while CBOT soybeans climbed 0.5% to $380.47.

Meanwhile, in France, the soft wheat crop has significantly deteriorated since December, according to data from FranceAgriMer.

Concerns over supply have prompted commodity funds, which hold a large net short position in wheat, to start covering their positions.

Agricultural Commodities Impact on Inflation

The surge in wheat, corn, and soybean prices reflects a broader trend of rising commodity prices, excluding oil, driven by supply concerns, adverse weather conditions, and market speculation. As key staples in global food production, these grains play a critical role in inflationary pressures, impacting everything from livestock feed costs to consumer food prices.

Oil Prices Drop Amid Ukraine Peace Talks

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Oil prices dipped slightly on Friday amid prospects of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could ease global supply disruptions by lifting sanctions on Moscow. However, losses were limited by a delay in reciprocal U.S. tariffs.

Brent crude for April delivery fell 0.37% to $74.74 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery dropped 0.77% to $70.74 per barrel.

[[USOIL-graph]]

The market continued its downward trend following recent headlines about discussions between the U.S. and Russia on a potential end to the war in Ukraine.

During a 90-minute phone call on Wednesday, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to begin negotiations “immediately” to resolve the three-year conflict.

Ukraine Peace Talks

A resolution “could eventually lead to a lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, allowing more crude to enter the market.” A higher supply would, in theory, drive prices down.

On Friday, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to securing a “lasting” peace after his first meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky emphasized the need for a common plan with Western allies before engaging in talks with Russia, stating that Ukraine is ready to “move as quickly as possible toward real and guaranteed peace.”

Beyond geopolitics, oil prices remain influenced by a potential imbalance between supply and demand.

Traders continue to anticipate relatively slow demand growth in 2025, while new supplies from North and South America are expected to enter the market. Additionally, OPEC+ maintains significant spare production capacity, which could further impact prices.

Wall Street Closes Higher, Led by Gains in Tesla and Nvidia

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Major U.S. stock indices finished Thursday’s session with solid gains, driven by a rally in big tech stocks following the release of a roadmap for Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.77% to 44,711.43 points, while the S&P 500 gained 1.04% to 6,115.07 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.50% to 19,945.64 points.

[[SPX-graph]]

On Thursday, Trump signed a memorandum to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on countries that tax U.S. products, with an initial step requiring a 180-day fiscal impact report. This could delay implementation for several weeks.

Stocks also advanced following higher-than-expected U.S. producer price data. However, certain components of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—closely monitored by the Federal Reserve—came in lower, easing inflation concerns.

Treasury yields declined, reflecting diminished fears after a spike in consumer inflation data the previous day. Tech giants were key drivers of the rally, with Tesla (+5.77%), Nvidia (+3.16%), and Apple (+1.97%) pushing the S&P 500 higher.

All sectors posted gains, led by basic materials (+1.71%), consumer discretionary (+1.60%), and technology (+1.50%). In the Dow Jones, standout performers included Nvidia, Cisco (+2.10%), and Apple, while Merck (-1.46%) was the worst performer.

Oil Market

Global oil prices edged lower on Thursday as traders assessed potential peace prospects in Ukraine, while European natural gas prices dropped sharply.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery slipped 0.21% to $75.02 per barrel. In New York, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery dipped 0.11% to $71.29 per barrel.

Mexican Peso Gains Amid U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Concerns

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso appreciated on Thursday, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar in a session shaped by new economic data from the United States and news about President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

The spot exchange rate closed at 20.4780 pesos per dollar, marking an improvement from Wednesday’s 20.5093 pesos, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a gain of 3.30 cents, or 0.15%, for the local currency.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The dollar traded within a range, reaching a high of 20.6489 and a low of 20.4576. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—fell 0.82% to 107.12 points.

On Thursday, Donald Trump signed a memorandum introducing his reciprocal tariffs policy. The Republican leader emphasized that these tariffs aim to restore fairness and “level the playing field.” He also warned that shipments routed through third countries to bypass tariffs would not be tolerated.

Earlier in the day, data showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in January, reinforcing signs that inflation is picking up. This comes after a stronger-than-expected increase in January’s consumer prices as well.

The continued higher-than-expected producer price figures suggest a more complex inflation outlook. Investors are now closely watching trade developments.

Meta Triumphs on Wall Street While the Rest of Big Tech Struggles

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Mark Zuckerberg has positioned Meta as a standout on Wall Street, particularly in 2024 and 2025, thanks to his focus on monetizing AI to enhance advertising and user experience across Meta’s platforms.

Meta's shares surge.
Meta’s shares surge.

The start of 2025 has been rough for Big Tech. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) fell short of Wall Street’s expectations for cloud services revenue in their latest quarters. Apple (AAPL) underperformed in iPhone sales, while Tesla (TSLA) disappointed in both revenue and profits. This has taken a toll on their stock prices.

So far this year, Google and Microsoft shares have declined by 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively, while Tesla has plunged 17%. Apple’s stock is down more than 5%. Amazon has gained 4.3% over the same period, but since reporting earnings on February 7, it has slipped 1.4%.

But one company stands out: Meta (META). The social media giant’s stock has soared 24% since the beginning of the year and, as of Wednesday, had logged 17 consecutive sessions of gains on Wall Street.

Why Is Meta Outperforming Its Competitors?

Meta’s success isn’t just about investing in artificial intelligence (AI). Amazon has announced plans to spend over $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, while Google and Microsoft are allocating $75 billion and $80 billion, respectively. Meta, meanwhile, is also making major investments, with a budget projected between $60 billion and $65 billion.

However, the key difference lies in how these funds are being used. While its rivals focus on AI investments to attract external customers, Meta is leveraging AI to fuel its own growth.

A major factor behind Meta’s Wall Street rally is that its AI investments are directly enhancing its advertising business and increasing user engagement across its platforms. While other tech giants have spread their AI investments across multiple ventures, Meta has remained laser-focused on using AI to strengthen its core business.

After Inflation Data, Markets Expect Only One Rate Cut in 2025

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The unexpected rise in U.S. inflation, surpassing expectations, caught investors off guard and triggered an increase in Treasury yields. In this scenario, what will the Federal Reserve do next?

Wall Street has now pushed back expectations for the Fed’s next rate cut to December after core inflation in the U.S. exceeded forecasts last month. Markets now anticipate just a single 0.25 percentage point rate reduction in 2025, following a 0.4% rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which excludes food and energy.

Treasury bonds fell, driving yields across all maturities up by at least eight basis points. The CPI data was described as being on the “warmer side of mild,” with some analysts noting that inflation figures are not aligning with the Fed’s expectations.

In the swap markets tied to Federal Reserve policy, traders had already priced in just 25 basis points of easing. Before the inflation report, markets had expected the first rate cut of the year to come in September.

Yields on two-year Treasury notes, the most sensitive to central bank policy, surged up to 10 basis points, reaching 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield briefly climbed 10 basis points to 4.64%.

This report arrives at a pivotal moment for both Federal Reserve policymakers and the U.S. government debt market. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that there is no urgency to cut rates, citing the economy’s resilience.

Inflation Data Catches Wall Street Off Guard

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January CPI report, revealing a larger-than-expected rise in inflation for the first month of the year. Meanwhile, core prices reversed their previous month’s slowdown, keeping the focus firmly on the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

According to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI rose 3% year-over-year in January, up from 2.9% in December.

Wall Street Closes Mixed After U.S. Inflation Rebound

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

U.S. markets ended the day mixed on Wednesday following a rebound in inflation and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.50% to 44,368.56 points, while the broader S&P 500 declined 0.27% to 6,051.97 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.03% to 19,649.95 points.

[[SPX-graph]]

Inflation Data and Fed’s Stance

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, following a 0.4% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, CPI climbed 3.0%, up from 2.9% in December, exceeding analyst expectations of 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually.

Before the inflation data was released, former U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated in his testimony that there is no urgency to lower rates.

Market Sentiment and Sector Performance

Investors remain focused on monetary policy signals, watching for clues about when the Fed might resume rate cuts. Meanwhile, concerns persist over a tougher trade policy, with tariffs potentially driving inflation higher.

Among sectors, energy (-2.69%) and real estate led the declines, while consumer staples (+0.23%) and communications (+0.23%) were the only gainers. Within the Dow Jones, Caterpillar (-2.81%) and Home Depot (-2.21%) recorded notable losses.

The Oil Market

Global oil prices fell on Wednesday as potential peace talks regarding the Ukraine war raised the possibility of Russia’s return to the market, alongside expectations of a new record in U.S. production.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery dropped 2.36%, settling at $75.18 per barrel. Meanwhile, in New York, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery fell 2.66%, closing at $71.37 per barrel.

Mexican Peso Strengthens Against the Dollar After Powell’s Comments

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso appreciated against the dollar on Wednesday, navigating a session of ups and downs after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the recent uptick in U.S. inflation.

The exchange rate closed at 20.5093 pesos per dollar, compared to 20.5392 the previous day, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). This represents a gain of 2.99 cents for the peso, or 0.15%.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between 20.4372 and 20.6311 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, edged up 0.05% to 107.98 points.

Powell’s Remarks and Inflation Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% last month, following a 0.4% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, CPI climbed 3.0%, up from 2.9% in December, exceeding analyst forecasts of 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually.

On the second day of his semiannual testimony before Congress, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, urging markets not to overreact to the inflation data, which came in notably higher than expected.

Market participants remain focused on U.S. monetary policy, particularly in a challenging trade environment that could reignite inflation due to tariff policies under former President Donald Trump’s economic agenda. A narrowing interest rate differential could pose risks for the peso.

Amid cautious sentiment, Powell’s testimony and the higher-than-expected inflation data have reinforced expectations that the Fed may keep rates elevated for longer than initially anticipated.